Pluralistic Ignorance

When We Mistakenly Assume We’re All on the Same Page

I have been struck by how I seem to live in two completely different worlds as far as the Coronavirus is concerned: When I talk to people in my professional life, or go through my Twitter feed, there is widespread agreement that the threat from the virus is severe, and needs to be dealt with urgently, with full force. But when I look around in everyday life, for example last week when I walked to the office or to shops, I get the impression that many people still just go about their regular business.

We often rely on social norms in situations of uncertainty. It’s an example of an Informational Social Influence, that is, we look at others to figure out what to think, and what to do, because we’re not quite sure about it ourselves. Often that makes sense, and is useful, but sometimes it leads us astray, and results in what is called Pluralistic Ignorance. It’s the phenomenon where everyone acts differently from what they really think, because nobody wants to be the odd one out, and come across as foolish, or unpopular. But as a consequence, we go along with it, even if we’re all wrong. It's a bit like the children’s tale about the emperor’s new clothes, who in fact is not wearing anything, but none of his underlings dare to say so because they assume that surely, others must know something that they don’t.



Research has shown that pluralistic ignorance can occur in many different situations. A classic study by Prentice and Miller (1993) showed that while most undergraduate students thought that their peers were much bigger fans of excessive alcohol than they were themselves, in reality none of them were all that much into drinking. But since nobody wants to be the party pooper, they all acted as if getting drunk is the best thing ever, thus creating a false social norm. 

Pluralistic Ignorance is relevant for the current coronavirus situation. A poll from March 17 shows that even though many people now stay home more, a sizable number (41%) still continues to go out as normal, as this figure shows. 

This is worrisome, because the poll was conducted just the day after the UK government tightened their recommendations and advised to “stop non-essential contact with others.” The problem is that as a citizen, it’s hard to know what exactly following this advice would mean. No more chats with your neighbour, or in-person meetings? Not going to restaurants, shops, or even not going to work? Many countries have systematically shut down schools, shops, restaurants, to rule out precisely this ambiguity.

In general, if there is a social norm that people think others subscribe to, they are less likely to voice an opinion if they fear that it conflicts with the norm. This is especially difficult when it comes to how we are expected to act in social situations. It’s awkward, to say the least, when someone puts out their hand and you refuse to shake it. Likability and trust are key dimensions when we form impressions of others, and we all want to be seen as literally approachable, so ‘socially distancing’ yourself from others can be uncomfortable.

What’s the solution? There are no easy answers, since the COVID-19 pandemic is an evolving situation, and quick decisions need to be made taking many factors into account. But the key is to take the guess-work out of the advice given to the general public: Guidance needs to be as specific as possible. That might even mean shutting down certain services and points of contact, such as schools, restaurants, pubs, etc. even if it means great disruptions to everyday life, because then the message is clear: Going to restaurants is no longer safe. This can also have a signal function: If restaurants are closed it suggests that something very serious is going on, and that it is no longer time to ‘keep calm and carry on.’  

The Punchline:

When it comes to the coronavirus and COVID-19, governments and other decision makers need to make it crystal-clear what specific actions need to be taken. If you are unsure and you go along with what others are doing, ask yourself every now and then: Is it appropriate to assume that they know something that you don’t, for example, because they have the relevant expertise, or access to specialized information? Even more importantly, are others looking to you for guidance on what to do? If you are in a position of power or authority, this is likely the case. So you need to lead by example, in order to not reinforce social norms that make it seem like everyone is on the same page, when it fact we may all be equally uncertain.